CAMS Weekly View – Week Ending 3/17/17
March 20, 2017
In recent Weekly View’s we have offered the observation of how caution has been quietly creeping into the market landscape which has been most evident inside the stock market. We have shared this observation as a result of our continued vigilant watch for any signs of trend change in the light of the plethora of cross-currents this market is navigating.
Historically, markets ebb and flow as nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Interestingly, people collectively fall into expecting straight line experiences when markets display such behavior for a long enough period of time. That is, watch a market go essentially straight up for enough weeks or months and the collective seemingly feel it will continue without pause. Conversely, when markets begin a prolonged downward process the collective typically feel this also will continue indefinitely.
This is a general description of what is known as Investor Sentiment or Mass Investor Psychology. There are numerous measures in market analytics that can be used to help identify the general state of mass psychology. The general essence of them all is to gauge whether we collectively have become excessively optimistic or pessimistic. This then leads to a backdrop whereby the market will move in the opposite direction of that mass psychology as we are all reminded, yet again, that markets really do ebb and flow.
Click link for larger view: http://schrts.co/t32b9t
Above is a daily chart of the DJIA for the past year. The red line in the lower part of the chart is a rolling average of prices for the DJIA for the previous 200 days. (You simply add up the prices of the previous 200 days, divide by 200 and this gives you an average price for that time period. Do this daily and place it on a line and you have a 200 day rolling average line as depicted.)
The vertical red line, denoted with the text box within the chart, reflects the tremendous gap between the DJIA’s 200 day rolling average line and its current price. There are times, such as now, where the gap between them becomes extremely wide reflecting market participants’ general exuberance. Such a rush of optimism can leave the DJIA extended in price in the short term.
At the top of the vertical red line is an arrow pointing to the day after the recent State of the Union address as more optimism rushed in via the strong gap higher. The next day(s) though, prices reversed resulting in a failed attempt to move higher. This suggests the DJIA may have become too extended and wants to take a breather, or even pullback, which would close the gap with its 200 day line.
Click link for larger view: http://schrts.co/gLFlsH
The above chart is the same daily DJIA chart but this goes back to the spring of 2009. With this broader perspective we can see there is an ebb and flow to markets. We can also see how the DJIA reunites with its rolling 200 day average over time. In addition, through this broader view, we can see how large the current gap is between its price and its 200 day average.
This in and of itself does not suggest imminent trouble but it does offer caution when combined with the DJIA’s recent failed attempt at moving higher. It also gives some perspective of how exuberant market participants have become in recent months. This begs the question if they have become too optimistic, en masse, too quickly. Through the lens of Investor Sentiment work, this may be offering the market wants to take a breather near-term. History offers the market is prone to becoming more cautious at a time when the vast majority are convinced caution is unnecessary.
I wish you well…
Sincerely,
Ken Reinhart
Director, Market Research & Portfolio Analysis
Portfolio Manager, CAMS Spectrum Portfolio
Footnote:
H&UP’s is a quick summation of a rating system for SPX9 (abbreviation encompassing 9 Sectors of the S&P 500 with 107 sub-groups within those 9 sectors) that quickly references the percentage that is deemed healthy and higher (H&UP). This comes from the proprietary “V-NN” ranking system that is composed of 4 ratings which are “V-H-N-or NN”. A “V” or an “H” is a positive or constructive rank for said sector or sub-group within the sectors.
This commentary is presented only to provide perspectives on investment strategies and opportunities. The material contains opinions of the author, which are subject to markets change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions which fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for descriptive purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions. Each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. PERFORMANCE IS NOT GUARANTEED AND LOSSES CAN OCCUR WITH ANY INVESTMENT STRATEGY.
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